The Long War
The time has come for us to stop calling this the Global War on Terrorism. Really, this has become The Long War. To understand this warfare, this struggle, it is important to understand both the Islamic struggle against the West, as well as the Shi’a / Sunni struggle. Both of these can be understood within the framework of today’s war in Iraq.
Al Qaeda is concerned with two enemies – the Near Enemy, and the Far Enemy. The Near Enemies are those Muslims who have strayed from the true tenents of the faith. Al Qaeda, under the tutelage of the Salafists, says that true Islam is the Islam from the time of the Prophet Mohammed, without updating, without new rules, without consideration for modern society. The Near Enemy is, therefore, any secular Muslim country; any Muslim who is Shi’a; and any Sunni who does not live their live in accordance with the teachings of the faith. The Far Enemy is every other non-believer. At the top of this list are the Jews and the Americans.
Iraq is a battleground for the battle against the Far Enemy. For Al Qaeda and others, Iraq is a battleground on which to battle both the nonbelievers, in the form of the America and coalition forces, and the non-believers in the form of the secular government that has emerged post-Saddam. As such, were the United States to pack up and go home, the fight against the Far Enemy in Iraq would continue on, in an effort to assist the Iraqi people in establishing an Islamic regime. That fight, to create a proper Muslim country, would continue until either success was achieved, or until Iraq is no longer hospitable battleground.
Iraq is compounded by a battle with the Near Enemy. The Shi’a and the Sunni are at odds over the future of the country. These are the Iraqi Shi’a and Sunni, at odds not only over religious differences, but also over the politics, economics and security of Iraq, the future of the country. In this regards, their conflict is as much over the differences between two ethnic groups as it is over religious differences.
Resolving the conflict between the Shi’a and the Sunni of Iraq, the fight with the Near Enemy, will not be enough to bring peace to the country, when compounded with the fight against the Far Enemy. If the Shi’a and Sunni ever work out their differences, finding a way to co-exist, Al Qaeda, Salafists, and other reformers would seek to continue the fight in Iraq, against the Far Enemies of the United States and Coalition forces, and against the Near Enemy of the Iraqi government. It is one battlefield with two distinct fights, the resolution of which are deeply entwined.
Peace for Iraq will come only with the emergence of a government in Baghdad that is able to offer real security for the citizens of Iraq. The Iraqi people will need to create an environment where Iraq is no longer a battlefield, no longer conducive for waging war against either Near Enemies or Far Enemies. When Iraq has that, when Iraq is secure within its own borders, all fighting will be problematic, and the conflict will have to move elsewhere. The Iraqis will need to either establish a stable and strong representative government, or an authoritative or totalitarian regime, for this to happen.
The Long War, then, is only part of the fighting going on in the world today. The United States and others, in the Global War on Terrorism, are fighting off the attacks of Al Qaeda and the Salafists, with both sides thinking that it is this conflict that will define the future of the world. Yet this struggle cannot be seen outside the framework of the other ongoing struggle, that of Muslim against Muslim. It is only when these two conflicts are mitigated that the Long War will end.