Al Qaeda has, as a long term objective, the destruction of America and the removal of the Crusaders and Jews from the Arab world. This is a pre-cursor to the re-establishment of the Caliphate, an Islamic state for the Middle East if not the world, that would adhere to the core tenants of the Islamic faith from the time of Mohammad. There are things, though, that America and Americans should be looking for, key indicators of the threat to the United States.
Al Qaeda would like to see the United States destroyed. Short of that, Al Qaeda wants to force the United States to withdraw from the Middle East, back to within its own borders. At the core of Al Qaeda’s effort is a fundamental insurgency concept — wage war everywhere, all the time.
In the days of the Cold War, the United States was concerned only with addressing the security and issues of half the world — through the stand-off, the Soviets held control off the other half of the world. But with the demise of the Soviets, the United States has, with mixed or poor results, tried to pick up the slack and provide this same level of concern for the security and issues of all the world. The United States wants to be the superpower for the whole world — providing protection and security everywhere, all the time.
With that, Al Qaeda is seeking to over-extend the United States, to tax the United States to the point where it breaks and falls apart. It conducts attacks in Afghanistan, but hides in Pakistan. It supports Muslim insurgents in the Philippines, but runs training camps in Africa. In many ways, Al Qaeda is seeking to draw the United States into a game of Whack-A-Mole — popping up all over the world, with varying forms and different threats. Doing so forces the United States to commit more forces, more assets, more intelligence tools, to more places.
And all of that costs money. And it uses personnel, and soldiers. And it uses limited resources, like UAV’s, and satellites, and whatever super secret James Bond-types of people the United States has. The more places Al Qaeda emerges, the more the tax is on the United States, as a government, as a military, as a nation.
There are things that can happen within the United States that would play right into the efforts Al Qaeda. Things that can happen, and things that people can do, that will play into Al Qaeda’s narrative for the destruction of the United States and the removal of the Crusaders and Jews from the Arab lands.
One is the political movement to withdraw American forces and any American presence from the Middle East. At the simplest level, calling for the withdrawal of American forces would take the United States one step closer to meeting the Al Qaeda goal. However, Al Qaeda is at least, if not more, concerned with the presence of American businesses and culture in the Middle East — everything from Michael Jackson CD’s to McDonald’s. Bechtel would need to withdrawal, as would Haliburton, and Voice of America, and the American Embassies.
I think we are starting to see this already, with many starting to say that the cost of the war in Iraq, in American lives and in Iraqi lives, is too great. Should this idea impact the elections next month, or in two years, we could see a strategic shift in Al Qaeda’s favor. Yes — that’s right — a vote for candidates that advocate with withdrawal of forces from the battlefields, is a vote in favor of Al Qaeda.
Additionally, if voter dissatisfaction with the federal government continues to grow, that may well also favor Al Qaeda. Whether it is the corruption scandals (like whole bundles of cash in a Congressman’s freezer), the sex scandals (straight, gay, child molesting or just wrong), the dirty money needed to get elected these days, or the general sense that elected officials serve special interests and not their actual constituents, this dissatisfaction could well lead to a growing sense of withdrawal from the federal system. It might also lead to a rise in either regionalism, or in states rights — much as was the case with the South made their move to withdraw from the United States. And that internal fractioning would threaten the future of the United States, and would likely force a return of isolationism. Which would be just fine with Al Qaeda.
I am also concerned with events that will require greater commitments of personnel and resources here within the United States. Acts that raise the security posture, that world-famous TSA threat level and the like. New measures, new procedures, new agencies and organizations needed within the American borders. With the United States already being spread thin via the Whack-A-Mole game, these types of domestic requirements only further tax the United States for limited funds, resources, and personnel.
As I mentioned the possible growing sentiment that the price of American military operations overseas could be viewed as too costly in human life, there appears, from time to time, indicators that some states are interested in seeing their National Guard forces freed from their requirements for participating in the Global War on Terror, so that they can indeed remain available for the operational requirements of their home states. Should domestic requirements increase — an upswing in domestic terrorism, of serious incidents, of natural disasters on the scale of Katrina — states calling for a return on their National Guard forces would be advantageous to Al Qaeda, for two reasons. One, it would have the United States continue to prosecute its military operation against Al Qaeda with fewer available resources. Secondly, it would play into the Al Qaeda narrative of ushering along an American withdrawal to within the American boundaries.
Lastly, an outright insurgency in America would likely greatly accelerate Al Qaeda’s achievement of their goals. Whether it is attacks on military or government targets, on financial institutions or the backbone of the internet, any era of chaos within the American boundaries would being about the turmoil needed to shake off any conviction the United States might have about waging a long war with Al Qaeda. It is hard to go off to fight in a foreign country against a hard to define enemy like Al Qaeda, when your own nuclear plants are being attacked, or your own stock markets are in jeopardy.
As such, Al Qaeda can be expected to seek to draw out the United States to commit forces and resources everywhere, while also looking to spark or fan the fires of disturbances and trouble at home in Middle America. Both efforts support the over-arching objective of seeing the United States presence withdrawn from the Middle East in preparation for the re-establishment of the caliphate.
